CREATING THE ENERGY WORLD AND GREEK NONCOMMITTAL

CREATING THE ENERGY WORLD AND GREEK NONCOMMITTAL
by Stavros Karkaletsis
Defence Analyst
There is no doubt that hypermobility in the energy sector will bring about a new state of affairs in the Balkans, as well as in the wider area. New strategic alliances will be formed at a remarkable rate and the balances of power in the region will be altered.
Concerning Greece, there are indications that debts will be paid. A typical example is the troubled Burgas-Alexandroupoli pipeline, where Karamanlis's placidity has given way to Papandreou’s review. Unfortunately, as the result of such inconsistencies, Greece has managed to lose everything, within just a few years. And this at a time when Turkey is winning all around, establishing one alliance after another. Let us remember:
- In the Eurofighters market, which is strategically important (for maintaining the fundamental balance in the Aegean), Athens has been handing out promises and assurances since Simitis was in power. But these remain promises, with the result that whatever support there was from Berlin has been lost. Karamanlis’s governments were unable, for 5 whole years, to obtain ammunition for the LEOPARD HEL 2 tanks. So the country has perhaps the strongest tanks on the planet. But they can only be used for parades!
- The old and once-productive Athens-Paris alliance is now a mere memory. Sarcozy sent the appropriate “messages” to Papandreou and Christofias requesting support to prevent Turkey becoming a Euro-candidate country in December. But with significant compensations regarding defence co-operations, and even concerning the political sphere in Cyprus. For George Papandreou, however, it is essential that Washington does not get angry. The gates to Europe must remain open to the Turks, with Greece as something between a doorkeeper and a bell boy. For absolutely nothing in return!
- We have lost (even) Russia: Karamanlis’s timid overture was never completed. Negotiations for BMP-3 armoured vehicles are unresolved, as is the issue of the Burgas-Alexandroupoli pipeline. At a time when Ankara is advancing rapidly to make important energy agreements with the Russians, Papandreou is talking about renegotiating one on the basis of ecology!
Even the Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, leader of an overtly American-friendly shift in Sofia, stated that the Burgas-Alexandroupoli pipeline is not a priority for his government, and he has left open the possibility that the project be postponed. Recent statements from Karaslavov, the Bulgarian ambassador to Athens, are more than clear about Sofia’s intentions: “It is logical for every new government to re-determine its priorities in different areas. This is what the two recently-elected governments of Bulgaria and Greece are doing. The realisation of the Burgas-Alexandroupoli pipeline will go through many complicated preliminary stages. The governments of the two countries want to be certain, not only about the economic advantages, but also about the absolute security of the installations. The position of the Bulgarian government must, for the moment, be evaluated by precisely these criteria.” Bulgarian Energy and Economy Minister Traikov considers the agreement to be unfair, based on: the low participation of Bulgarian businesses in the transfer of the oil, and low costs of transit and levies for it being transported across their soil.
Athens’ inconsistency in the matter is effectively forcing Moscow to turn towards Ankara, which has been lurking in the background. Broadly speaking, European steps backwards in the energy sector are making Russia turn towards the East. The first signs are already apparent: The Russians will make strategic-type alliances with China and Turkey while Greece and Europe act as if they don’t know what they want. Certainly, the prompter is waiting in the wings. And he knows very well what he wants: The USA will fight with all its might to keep new energy hubs and routes under construction under its own control.
The issue, therefore, rests on the following dilemma: Is it in our interests, considering the inconsistencies and doubts, to make Turkey the only choice for the Russians? The Turks do not hide their aspirations. Davutoğlu’s statements to Sarajevo on the economic revival of the Ottoman Empire in the Balkans are still fresh. The excellent analyst Mehmet Ogutcu wonders if his country and Russia will turn from adversaries into partners. Ogutcu believes that Turkey has the potential to become a modern energy version of the Silk Road: the hub and distributor of a range of pipelines which will lead to the large countries of Western Europe.
One does not need to have a particular talent for strategic thinking to realise that Greece’s two-faced position is pushing Russia into the arms of the Turks. The constant strengthening of Russo-Turkish relations in recent months is threatening to soon affect Russian positions on the burning issues in Athens: Cyprus, the Aegean, and the naming of FYROM.
Athens’ inadequate foreign policy has achieved the unachievable in just a few years: It has lost the country all its international support, the USA has taken on the role of an invisible patron of Turkish expansionism, the European Union as Pontius Pilate and Russia is being lost...